Commodity Power Formation Disruption

Time honored power base’s ability to inflict power greatly diminished and expected to stay that way…

(All links relevant ∞ pay walls may apply)

[The reader will see differences in this ‘first run series’ (one of five), than the articles that follow. We have chosen to maintain them because the content is still relevant, despite some links degrading and the level of acumen contained within…]

In our view, the Internet of Everything (IoE), is a chaos-based power formation that is disrupting the following long established targeting and decision-making models: human affairs, commercial, and digital.

Chaos-based system’s power formations originate at the fringe (the outside) and move toward the center (inside). As the power flows to the center, the intensity increases more and more rapidly. Also happening is the power’s path, the width (left to right), depth (front to back) and height (bottom to top) grows in more and more rapid fashion too.

Some are deceived by the subtle, but significant, changes happening now in the formation of the IoE’ initial conditions. We are not. Below we provide a directly relevant and measurable set of use case scenarios for the reader to review and judge for herself: “Should I be paying attention to this new ‘outside ∞ in” phenomena?”

The opening wave of this outside ∞ in phenomena is playing out in a number of divergent commodity sectors. Check out the list below.

The reader should anticipate additional measurable groundswells of The Third Wave, with each forming their own set of spider graphs styled data points. Anticipate such phenomena to emerge across an increasingly broader spectrum of commodity and non-commodity power bases. As time passes, anticipate all these happenings to grow more intense at an increasingly faster pace. Such is the chaos-based growth patterns found in all Internet of Everything induced happenings.

The logic thread that ties the above insights with the four examples below is the basic understanding that a power gap exists between the human affairs targeting and decision-making used by most people today and the way IoE asset utilization power flow works.

IoE asset utilization power flows = How fast central controlled assets get optimized by way of hyper-linked sensors at the fringe

In power formation design vocabulary, we describe this phenomenon this way

In the centuries proceeding this one, institutions implemented their power plays by leveraging their direct power explicit assets or their power bases (hard assets, cash, platforms, etc.). Leverage was used both in the form of accumulating debt to raise cash to fuel expansion. And, in some cases, when alignment was not immediately available, as way of getting others (institutions and individuals) to do things unnatural or out of alignment with the individual’s self-interest.

Even today, this drama filled game of leverage has been extended to things that do not share the same explicitness of the direct power plays of the past. Areas where direct power plays have or are being extended into the realm of indirect power tacit assets include: intellectual property, algorithms, machine learning (artificial intelligence), search, ride sharing, banking, journalism, wireless carriers and religion.

They attempt to play an old game in a new arena. Hence the disconnect.

The disconnect is the premature deployment of direct power plays, in arenas where the indirect power flows of the tacit shapes the direct power base’s explicit.

In short, tacit power is the context that shapes the power base’s explicit content.

The drama comes from people who yet don’t realize, they are playing an insufficient power game. A version of the game where they put content (the explicit) before context (tacit) in an era where the IoE enables tacit power ability to shape all explicit power bases.

“Content without Context is just pretext.”
Thank you Tavis Smiley

More on how tacit power flows shape explicit power bases in future postings. For now, let’s return to real-world examples of how all this plays out…and more.

First groundswell* of commodity’s Third Wave happenings:
[*As to be expected, each data point (numbers ∞1 » ∞6 below) is riding its own wave on top of the overall IoE groundswell.]

∞1 Commodity Petroleum ∞ Saudi Arabia

To see how the Saudi Aribia’s old school power base centric gambit failed we offer this article. In a nut shell, in our view, Saudi Arabia realized to late the amount of petroleum that would emerge from the IoE based fracking technology and techniques. Nor did they realize the scale, quickness and magnitude and staying power, fueled by non-petroleum dollar funding sources,

Bottom-line: In our view, Saudi Aribia:

  • Realized too late the amount of petroleum that would emerge in to the global market from IoE based fracking technology and techniques
  • Realized too late the scale, quickness, magnitude and staying power of IoE power formations once scale was achieved
  • Realized too late the magnitude of non-petroleum industry investment dollars seeking positive returns in today’ age of negative interest rates.
  • Realized too late the intensity non-petroleum industry risk managers are under to ‘do something’ to generate a return.
  • And decisively, realized too late how the quick scalability, the resilient ∞ agility, and the staying power of IoE power plays funded by non-petroleum sector funding sources combine to form new dominating power formations.

This last point is the lateral move no one inside the petroleum bubble saw coming

∞2 Commodity Rare Earth Metals ∞ Chinese Providers

To see yet another demonstration how central planning’s control over commodities and more is playing out, review Honda co-develops first hybrid car motor free of heavy rare earth metals. It does a great job of laying out how leverage, in this case the leverage that comes with controlling vast amounts of a commodity, is undone by innovation and other tacit power plays

∞3 Commodity Politics ∞ Politicians Who Believe Sovereign Power Still Resides in Institutions.

An understanding of Agnetic’s No Malice℠ writing style enables the reader to review the following, and all our writing,  in the context in which it is written. The focus of the following is on the Power Flow, not the Power Base. That is to say the way in which something is done (The How), and not focused on the content (The What.) We are not passing judgement. We are merely commenting presentation style. Thus, Agnetic’s writing style frees us from being consumed by nameless critics seeking to pivot or leverage our writings to fit their narrow-casted, humanly contrived agendas, power bases and judgements.

To see an example of an anticipated historical event, an outside ∞ in event, designed to use new IoE technology and techniques to attack a central power base’s weakest flank*, we encourage the reader to review, to truly compare and contrast, the two articles below:

  • For the record, the author is amazed that the attack has been initiated by someone who suffers a similar level of lack of confidence.

∞4 Commodity Hydrogen & Fertilizer* ∞ Centralized Nitrogen Fertilizer Producers

By now, the reader must be thinking to themselves, “I wonder if there is commodity power formation disruption happening in real-time that is just now getting started?”

Indeed, there is! We direct the reader to Bayotech: A chemical reactor company. This article “BayoTech funding round to boost development of new fertilizer-manufacturing system” gets the ball rolling. Look for more…

*[Full Disclosure Note: Scott Dyer, Bayotech’s Chief Science Officer has a minority ownership in Agnetic, LLC. Agnetic, LLC is the company the author of this posting owns and operates.]

∞5 Commodity Corn ∞ Soybean Monoculture Economics ∞ Chinese Government’s Central Planners

For any readers still out there, with any doubt of how unavoidable the groundswell the IoE power formation disruption is we offer this data point with a headline that says it all:

China’s Corn Mountain: Market forces humble Beijing’s central planners once again   -Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2016.

In our view the above story does a fine job of presenting how the size of your power base (how much stuff) you have (the explicit), and the power techniques of leverage that go with explicit power games of command and control, are just not that effective.

Another data point for interested readers is General Stanley McChrystal’s book: Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World

To be specific:

If the old game of leveraging power bases doesn’t work for the Chinese government and a commanding general in the U.S. Army, (Oh! And don’t forget Saudi Arabia from ∞1 above!) who in effect, both have/had all the resources (the explicit) imaginable, what make any other commander, controller or central planner think the old power plays will work for her or him?

∞6 The Commodity Seed-Chemical Oligopoly Complex ∞ Dupont-Dow, ChemChina-Syngenta, Bayer-Monsanto

In the food sector, due to nature-based logic, like being able to plant most crops once per year, it is well known it takes time for business strategies to play out. So unlike the phone or cellular industry where things tend to cycle a couple of times per year, in agriculture, things cycle a bit longer. But that doesn’t mean there is less drama. In fact, drama intensifies.

Also, this sector is not immune from the tempo of how business strategies play out. We are referring to the way all chaos-based models playout. That is to say slow is smooth, smooth is so fast few see the resulting lateral end move coming.

Conclusion: Something Better Has Arrived.

Due to the insights lifted up in Clockspeed, a timeless book written by MIT’s Charlie Fine, an Agnetic advisor, and other sources,  and even more sources, as well as twenty-two plus years of front-line experience of imitating and cultivating power flows in chaos-based systems:

We understand what comes next is an age of unpresented innovation with great leaps in efficiency, production, and value.

This contraction ∞ expansion cycles (found in ∞1  » ∞6 above) is well-known, well-understood, and in our view are
bankable and deliverable.

How this contraction ∞ expansion plays out in all things Seed-Chemical and the other use case scenarios listed above, are yet to be determined. By no means, can predictions nor guarantees in terms of market share, trustworthiness or forms of power can be made. But new forms of anticipated historical improvements in human affairs will emerge.

The given we do know is they are all chaos-base power formations that will happen in  cumulative concurrency style.

For example, happening in concurrency with the oligopoly ∞ technology fueled break through (∞6 above and the others) is the emergence of The Internet of Everything (IoE).

In our view the IoE greatly speeds up the arrival of and the power flow away from constricting oligopoly influence in all things seed-chemical, and by extension all things food.

This is a welcome natural timing of a cross-link that opens up an era of unpresented innovation in all things Dinner-to-Dirt-and Back Again. Which we view as a natural open space to demonstrate how the power of the IoE unleashes the next great advancement of human affairs.

Remember it was advancement in human affairs that:

∞ Got the Magna Carter signed

∞ Fought for the United States Constitution

∞ Founded the United States of America

∞ Unleashed “set of research and development of technology transfer initiatives occurring between the 1930s and the late 1960s” known as the green revolution.

∞ Released this writer form the drama filled, humanly contrived notions of how commodity market’s power flows.

Specifically: In all six examples (∞1 » ∞6) listed above, humans are too deeply consumed by their own work flow bubble:

∞1 To see what others see: how the growing lack of trust in institutions overall, and in their own individual institution is undermining their direct power plays. Hence, untrustworthiness is undermining their best laid plans.

∞2 To hold space for others to share what is obvious

∞3 Lack enough resilient ∞ agility to save themselves

Finally:

Let us not let the humanly contrived drama of commanders, controllers, and central planners, and their whining about the loss of the influence to leverage their power base(s) stop what is naturally emerging into the world:

Sovereign Power Shifting from Institutions to Individuals

Which is happening regardless of who it upsets, because Mother Nature is just not that into human affairs.